Yen and Swiss franc gain as COVID variant dents risk appetite

Yen and Swiss franc gain as COVID variant dents risk appetite

By Karen Brettell

NEW YORK (Reuters) - News of a coronavirus variant potentially resistant to current vaccines sent investors dashing for the safety of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc on Friday, and traders also took profits after an extended rally in the U.S. dollar.

The gains in the yen and the franc came at the expense of the growth-sensitive Australian dollar and Norwegian crown, though thinner volumes after Thursday's U.S. Thanksgiving holiday made market moves more volatile.

The United States will restrict travel from South Africa - where the new mutation was discovered - and neighboring countries beginning Monday, a senior Biden administration official said.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said it was designating the variant, named omicron, as being "of concern," a label applied only to four variants to date. It could take weeks for scientists to fully understand the variant's mutations and potential dangers.

"If we’re looking at something like this where we have new mutations on mutations of a spike protein it almost feels like the initial working assumption for most market participants is that this is a new phase of the pandemic," said Bipan Rai, North American head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

"New lockdowns and restrictions will maybe be put in place, and it certainly feels like we're going to need a new vaccine as well," he added.

One of the main gainers was the yen, which bounced off five-year lows hit this week against the greenback, and jumped almost 2% to a high of 113.09, its best day since March 2020.

The euro rose 0.97% to a high of $1.1312, though it fell to more than six-year lows against the resurgent Swiss franc, at 1.0428 francs per euro.

"This is a textbook flight to quality into yen and the Swiss franc on the new virus strain with the thin liquidity also a factor, which may accelerate the unwinding of short bond positions," Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) in London, said.

Speculative accounts had been massively short safe-haven assets, with U.S. CFTC figures showing net bearish positioning at $1.2 billion and $10.3 billion for the yen and Swiss franc, respectively, in the latest week.

The dollar index dipped 0.75% to 96.030, after reaching a 16-month high of 96.938 on Wednesday. It has jumped from 93.872 on Nov. 9 as investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates in mid-2022 to thwart stubbornly high inflation.

CIBC’s Rai said Friday's decline in the greenback was more likely due to investors taking profits after the currency’s recent gains, and not a change in the dollar’s safe-haven status.

"The near-term move is mostly about extended positioning and closing those out. Once that becomes a little bit more finely balanced and if we are in a risk-off scenario, then I would expect the dollar to continue to outperform," he said.

Sterling briefly slipped to a new 2021 low below $1.3278 as the jitters prompted some to scale back bets on an interest rate hike in December.

In the crypto currency market bitcoin fell as low as $53,524, the lowest since Oct. 10, while ethereum dropped to $3,917, the lowest since Oct. 28.

Graphic: World FX rates https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-CURRENCIES-PERFORMANCE/0100301V041/index.html

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 3:22PM (2022 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Dollar index 96.0110 96.7760 -0.77% 6.701% +96.7870 +95.9850

Euro/Dollar $1.1316 $1.1206 +1.02% -7.35% +$1.1323 +$1.1206

Dollar/Yen 112.8300 115.3700 -1.84% +9.64% +115.3150 +113.0900

Euro/Yen 128.08 129.29 -0.94% +0.91% +129.3300 +127.8100

Dollar/Swiss 0.9218 0.9356 -1.37% +4.31% +0.9359 +0.9216

Sterling/Dollar $1.3330 $1.3318 +0.09% -2.43% +$1.3349 +$1.3278

Dollar/Canadian 1.2777 1.2646 +1.08% +0.38% +1.2799 +1.2650

Aussie/Dollar $0.7113 $0.7186 -0.95% -7.48% +$0.7190 +$0.7113

Euro/Swiss 1.0433 1.0485 -0.50% -3.46% +1.0490 +1.0429

Euro/Sterling 0.8484 0.8411 +0.87% -5.07% +0.8495 +0.8413

NZ $0.6808 $0.6854 -0.63% -5.17% +$0.6856 +$0.6805

Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway 8.9800 8.9530 +1.17% +5.49% +9.1010 +8.9850

Euro/Norway 10.2380 10.0493 +1.88% -2.19% +10.2941 +10.0486

Dollar/Sweden 9.0852 9.0851 +1.23% +10.91% +9.1830 +9.0661

Euro/Sweden 10.3107 10.1855 +1.23% +2.33% +10.3365 +10.1865

# FOREX

2021-11-27 04:50:00     Come from : Reuters

India rupee sees worst week in seven on new variant

India rupee sees worst week in seven on new variant

By Swati Bhat

MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Indian rupee saw its worst week in seven on Friday, while the benchmark 10-year yield closed at its lowest in more than two weeks as concerns over a COVID variant spooked markets across the globe.

Shares and currencies in Asia's emerging markets fell sharply as investors fled riskier assets after the detection of the significant mutation, which in-turn strengthened safe-haven assets such as the dollar.

The partially convertible rupee ended at 74.87 per dollar compared to its close of 74.51. It touched a low of 74.9250 earlier, its lowest since Nov. 1. On the week, the unit fell 0.9%, its biggest weekly loss since the week to Oct. 8, snapping five straight week of gains.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield ended at 6.33%, its lowest close since Nov. 9 and down 4 basis points on day.

"Buying being seen in bonds is largely on account of the new variant today. The market now expects the RBI to be dovish due to the uncertainty," said Murthy Nagarajan, head of fixed income at Tata Asset Management.

"Some people are also toying with the idea that they may not even hike the reverse repo rate".

Indian shares sank nearly 3% in response to fears the new variant could wreak more economic damage. (BO)

The Reserve Bank of India is due to announce its monetary policy committee's decision after a three-day meeting on Dec. 8 and a large section of the market has been expecting them to start raising the reserve repo rate to try to normalise the policy rate corridor to pre-pandemic levels.

The central bank has already started conducting variable rate reverse repo auctions of slightly longer tenors to temporarily absorb the massive liquidity surplus in the banking system but has shied away from announcing any more permanent measures so far.

Traders expect the 10-year bond yield to trade in a 6.25% to 6.40% range until the policy decision, while the rupee is expected to largely track domestic shares and dollar moves for direction. It is broadly expected to hold between 74.25 to 75 per dollar range over the next two weeks.

Moves in global crude oil prices will also be closely monitored as they have a large impact on India's import bill, with the country importing more than three-fourths of its oil requirements.

Oil prices fell more than 5% to a two-month low as the new added to expectations a supply surplus could swell in the first quarter.

# FOREX

2021-11-26 20:07:00     Come from : Reuters

Dollar Weakens Against Yen on New Virus Fears; Rand Hit Hard

Dollar Weakens Against Yen on New Virus Fears; Rand Hit Hard

By Peter Nurse

Investing.com - The dollar edged lower Friday, weighed by gains to the safe haven yen and Swiss franc, as traders dumped riskier currencies in the wake of the discovery of a new highly-mutated coronavirus variant.

At 2:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower at 96.635, moving further away from Wednesday's high of 96.938, the strongest level since July 2020. 

USD/JPY fell 0.7% to 114.52 and USD/CHF dropped 0.6% to 0.9307 as traders leapt into the traditional safe havens of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc on the announcement of a new Covid-19 variant that had mutated so far from the original strain that it could be resistant to vaccines.

Elsewhere, EUR/USD rose 0.3% to 1.1240 and GBP/USD dropped 0.2% to 1.3300.

The World Health Organisation announced that it will hold an emergency meeting later Friday to discuss the implications for treatments in the wake of this discovery. While it isn't yet clear how virulent the new strain is, it is the first strain that has shown itself to be competitive with the Delta variant that has been responsible for most infections this year.

The U.K. Health Security Agency said that the variant, called B.1.1.529 or nu, has a spike protein that was dramatically different from the one in the original coronavirus, which the current generation of Covid-19 vaccines are designed to fight. 

Although the dollar moved lower, the hardest hit currency was the South African rand as the variant was first detected in southern Africa, with USD/ZAR climbing 1.6% to 16.2171, a more than one-year high. 

Also whacked was the risk sensitive Australian dollar, with AUD/USD falling to a three-month low, down 0.8% at 0.7130, even as Australian retail sales grew a better-than-expected 4.9% month-on-month in October. The New Zealand dollar followed suit, falling 0.7% to 0.6811, also a three-month low.  

"People are reacting with the uncertainty about what this means. You shoot first and ask questions later when this sort of news erupts," Reuters reported Ray Attrill, Head of FX Strategy at NAB in Sydney, as saying.

That said, the U.S. dollar index is still up around 0.6% on the week and is set for its fifth straight weekly gain. Traders are positioning for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates by the middle of next year, while central banks in Europe, Japan and elsewhere stick to more dovish stances.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to speak later in the session, and she rowed back last week on the notion of early rate hikes in the Eurozone. Additionally, the minutes of the central bank’s last meeting suggested a cautious approach to any policy changes.

 

# FOREX

2021-11-26 15:52:00     Come from : Investing.com

Analysis-In Japan, a weaker yen may not be the blessing it once was

Analysis-In Japan, a weaker yen may not be the blessing it once was

By Tetsushi Kajimoto

TOKYO (Reuters) - A weak yen, once seen as favourable for Japan's exports-focused economy, has now become a pain point as it eats into household finances and confounds policymakers.

A gradual shift by Japan's manufacturers to offshore production means a weak yen has become less of a boon for local exporters than it was about a decade ago.

That shift means some at Japan's finance ministry, which is in charge of currency policy and known to step in to counter sharp yen rises, are now paying more attention to the downsides of a weaker currency, namely the effects of higher import costs.

Putting those concerns into focus this week, the dollar hit 115.525 yen, a level not seen since January 2017, as expectations for higher U.S. interest rates propped up the greenback and Japan's economic outlook darkened.

"A weak yen pushes up import prices, weighing on profits at companies dependent on raw materials imports and household purchasing power," Citi economist Kiichi Murashima noted. "The negative impacts of a weak yen may be larger than before given the penetration ratio of imports is on the rise."

Reversing the strong yen trend through massive monetary easing was one of the key goals of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" stimulus policies over his eight years in office to 2020. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to follow this strategy.

Over that period, the yen lost 50% against the dollar. However, export volumes remained mostly unchanged, suggesting a weaker currency, while still beneficial for Japanese companies abroad, has not necessarily made the country's goods more attractive to foreign buyers.

A quarter of Japanese manufacturers used offshore production in 2020, compared with 18% in 2010, according to a survey by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

The 2011 earthquake and tsunami accelerated that trend, swinging the trade balance into deficit as exports slowed and imports of fuel surged.

Exports now make up roughly 15% of Japan's economy as of 2020, the second smallest contribution among OECD nations after the United States and down from 17.5% in 2007.

In contrast, the consumer sector's share of GDP has held steady at 53%, making the economy more vulnerable to the surge in imported goods prices caused by a weaker yen.

Up until 2011, Japan would intervene heavily to stop a strong yen from crimping the competitiveness of exports, but it has also on rare occasions stepped it stop the currency falling.

The last time Japan intervened to stop yen declines was 1998 during the Asian Financial Crisis when the dollar broke above 146 yen.

Analysts think such a move is highly unlikely this time, but some analysts see 125 yen as a potential line in the sand.

A Reuters' survey of companies earlier this month showed about third of respondents expected profits to decrease if yen weakness persists.

LESS BANG FOR YOUR YEN

Importantly for policymakers, a battered currency has sapped Japanese households' purchasing power, giving them less for what they pay.

The yen's dwindling value has pushed up prices of brand-name imports ranging from luxury cars to expensive watches to smartphones as well as foodstuff such as U.S. beef imports.

For example, the price of a new-model iPhone has tripled to 190,000 yen over the past decade, equivalent to 60% of the average monthly salary in Japan. Over that period, however, salaries have remained broadly unchanged.

While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda maintains the merits of yen declines still outweigh the downsides, such a view is not evenly shared.

"The current yen weakness is rather negative, undermining Japanese purchasing power in the long run," said a government source with knowledge of the matter, stressing the need to fix public debt and raise productivity to make Japan more competitive.

Some central bankers have also acknowledged the challenge.

"For major companies with operations overseas, a weak yen gives a significant boost to their profits," BOJ board member Junko Nakagawa told Bloomberg in an interview published on Friday. "On the other hand, a weak yen strains firms with domestic operations by pushing up import costs."

# FOREX

2021-11-26 12:25:00     Come from : Reuters

Dollar Down, but Caps Losses as Newly Discovered COVID Strain Dampens Sentiment

Dollar Down, but Caps Losses as Newly Discovered COVID Strain Dampens Sentiment

By Gina Lee

Investing.com – The dollar was down on Friday morning in Asia. But losses were minimized as growing concerns about a newly discovered COVID-19 variant dampened investors’ risk appetite.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched down 0.07% to 96.685 by 9:57 PM ET (2:57 AM GMT). The index moved further away from 96.938, its highest level in nearly 17 months hit on Wednesday. However, it was up 0.73% on the week and set for its fifth straight weekly gain.

The USD/JPY pair was down 0.58% to 114.68.

The AUD/USD pair fell 0.63% to 0.7145, even as Australian retail sales grew a better-than-expected 4.9% month-on-month in October. The NZD/USD pair was down 0.42% to 0.6830.

The USD/CNY pair inched up 0.09% to 6.3920 while the GBP/USD pair edged down 0.12% to 1.3304.

The rand fell to a more than one-year low, at 16.17 per dollar, with concerns mounting about the B.1.1.529 COVID-19 variant discovered in South Africa that could make vaccines less effective.

"COVID-19 worries are definitely playing a role in increasing demand for safe havens including the yen, and because South Africa is the location of this new variant, that's an obvious reason to avoid the rand," Barclays senior FX strategist Shinichiro Kadota told Reuters.

In Europe, a rising number of COVID-19 cases prompted Germany to consider following neighbor Austria’s lead and re-impose a lockdown.

Meanwhile, an increasingly hawkish tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve has increased bets of an interest rate hike by mid-2022, while counterparts in Europe and Japan stick to more dovish stances.

Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his commitment to massive monetary stimulus last week, while the minutes from the European Central Bank's October meeting, released on Thursday, signaled continued stimulus and a cautious approach to any policy changes.

"If the COVID-19 situation worsens, then dollar-yen could go down further, but otherwise the monetary policy divergence is definitely going to be weighing on the yen in the medium term," said Barclay’s Kadota, who predicts dollar-yen will strengthen to 116 and beyond by mid-2022.

On the flip side, 114 should provide a floor for the currency pair in the near term, "unless the world really changes for the worse," he added.

# FOREX

2021-11-26 11:11:00     Come from : Investing.com

Turkish central bank, banks discuss rates after lira tumble

Turkish central bank, banks discuss rates after lira tumble

By Ebru Tuncay and Tuvan Gumrukcu

ISTANBUL (Reuters) -Turkey's central bank governor said he discussed recent interest rate cuts with bankers at a meeting on Thursday after a slide in the lira to record lows, and he also said that the banking sector was able to overcome market volatility.

Turkey's lira was flat on Thursday after a historic slide to all-time lows this week, triggered by President Tayyip Erdogan's defence of interest rate cuts, despite widespread criticism of his policy direction.

Governor Sahap Kavcioglu said after the meeting with top bankers and the country's BDDK banking watchdog that they made general evaluations on economic developments, and he said that the banking sector was very strong.

"We informed them about everything, whether it be interest rate cuts and other issues," Kavcioglu told reporters after the meeting. "The sector, central bank and BDDK are very much in harmony and in strong communication."

The lira was unchanged after the meeting, trading 0.5% firmer at 12.025 to the dollar. Before a rebound in the last two days, it hit a record low of 13.45 on Tuesday, down 45% this year, touching record lows in 11 consecutive sessions.

Global and domestic developments, the markets and banking sector developments were discussed at Thursday's meeting, the Association of Turkish Banks said in a statement, describing the meeting as very beneficial.

One market participant said the BDDK told the meeting that it would consider measures such as the country's capital adequacy ratio.

The BDDK was not immediately available for comment.

Separately, officials told Reuters Erdogan had ignored appeals, even from within his government, to reverse policy.

INFLATION ON 'VOLATILE COURSE'

The central bank said earlier on Thursday inflation would follow a volatile course in the short term.

It made the comments in the minutes of last week's monetary policy committee meeting, where it cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 15%. It has lowered the rate by a total 400 points since September.

"The central bank can hasten the end of this overshoot by signaling an end to rate cuts and a willingness to use hikes to defend the lira," a note from the Institute of International Finance said.

"This would help re-anchor inflation expectations, which are rising due to FX pass through from devaluation, raising the risk of accelerated dollarization. We maintain our fair value at $/TRY 9.50."

Many Turks, already grappling with inflation of around 20%, fear price rises will accelerate https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/lira-collapse-leaves-turks-bewildered-opposition-angry-2021-11-23. Opposition politicians have accused Erdogan of dragging the country towards disaster.

Erdogan has defended central bank policy and vowed to win his "economic war of independence", having pressured the central bank to move to an aggressive easing cycle https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/erdogans-risky-experiment-heal-turkeys-economy-2021-11-23 with the goal of boosting exports, investment and jobs.

But many economists have described the rate cuts as reckless and opposition politicians called for immediate elections. Turkstold Reuters https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/lira-collapse-leaves-turks-bewildered-opposition-angry-2021-11-23 the dizzying currency collapse was upending their household budgets and plans for the future.

# FOREX

2021-11-26 03:01:00     Come from : Reuters

Dollar slips below 16-month highs as trade winds down for Thanksgiving

Dollar slips below 16-month highs as trade winds down for Thanksgiving

By Elizabeth Howcroft

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar slipped slightly on Thursday but was still close to its highest since July 2020 against the euro, having strengthened due to market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates sooner than other major central banks.

Minutes from the Fed's Nov. 2-3 meeting boosted the dollar on Wednesday as they indicated the Fed had become more concerned about rising inflation. Various policymakers said they would be open to speeding up the taper of their bond-buying programme if high inflation held and move more quickly to raise interest rates.

Data on Wednesday showed U.S. jobless claims were at a 52-year low, consumer spending increased more than expected in October and inflation was rising.

But on Thursday the dollar's upward trend - which has seen it gain around 2.8% this month - paused slightly, with the dollar index down 0.1% at 96.782 at 1535 GMT, compared to the 16-month high of 96.938 it reached late on Wednesday.

Versus the Japanese yen, the dollar was just below a five year peak.

Neil Jones, head of FX sales at Mizuho, said that he expects the dollar's move lower to be a "temporary blip".

"Post-Thanksgiving next week and into December I’m looking for further dollar strength, albeit at a fairly subdued pace," he said.

Jones said that towards the end of the year seasonal demand for dollars would also contribute to its strength.

But, in a note to clients, ANZ strategists John Bromhead and Daniel Been said that with U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving "a period of tactical consolidation might be close."

The euro was up 0.1% versus the dollar at $1.1209, a slight recovery. But it has still lost around 3% so far this month, weighed down by expectations that the European Central Bank will be more dovish than the Fed, as well as, more recently, a new wave of COVID-19 restrictions in Europe.

"Given that this particular trade-weighted measure of the dollar is heavily skewed to European currencies, the combination of a bullish Fed and fourth waves in Europe is making the DXY (dollar index) look very bid," wrote ING currency strategists in a note to clients.

A surge in coronavirus infections in Germany and unusually high inflation rates are weighing on consumer morale in Europe's largest economy, a survey showed on Thursday.

Sweden's central bank left monetary policy unchanged, arguing that inflation would ease next year. It pencilled in its first post-pandemic rate hike for the end of 2024.

The Swedish crown strengthened, and was up around 0.5% at 9.0657 versus the dollar and up around 0.5% at 10.1645 versus the euro. But it was still set for its worst month versus the euro since September 2020.

The Australian dollar - seen as a liquid proxy for risk appetite - was down 0.1% at $0.71895.

The New Zealand dollar was down 0.3% at $0.6855, extending its losses from the previous session, when the country's Reserve Bank raised the key rate by a quarter of a percentage point, disappointing bulls hoping for a half point increase.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up around 2.7% at $58,730.33, having recovered from the month-low of $55,128.60 it reached on Tuesday.

# FOREX

2021-11-26 00:05:00     Come from : Reuters

Big falls, thin trades: Trading Turkey's lira

Big falls, thin trades: Trading Turkey's lira

By Saikat Chatterjee and Karin Strohecker

LONDON (Reuters) - The Turkish lira suffered a historic 15% fall on Tuesday in a session marked by thin trading volumes and dwindling liquidity, and gauges are pointing to more rocky times ahead.

Below are four charts depicting trading on a watershed day for the lira.

FROM FLOWS TO TRICKLES

The number of trades thinned out dramatically as the lira plunged to its record low of 13.45 to the dollar on Tuesday, data over the past week showed. The amount of deals peaked during that period when the lira stood at just under 10 to the dollar.

Price swings in thinning volumes are a classic sign of a market freezing up, with market makers shying away from offering trading liquidity while end-users are panicking to transact at any available prices.

Graphic - Lira trades: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zgpomkxoapd/liratrades.png

Graphic - Lira Volumes: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/byvrjkwgeve/liravolumes.png

SOARING VOL

Implied volatility gauges for lira/dollar - indicating expected fluctuations ahead - on Tuesday raced to their highest level since Turkey's 2018 currency crisis. The lira reversing some of its losses on Wednesday saw only a small pull back in implied volatility, showing that investors are betting on more swings ahead.

Derivative markets signal a dearth of option liquidity, with the fact that traders are shying away from large directional bets further exacerbating the price swings.

Graphic - Lira volatility: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/jnvwexdmavw/Lira%20volatility.JPG

WIDENING GAP

Volatility in the lira is unlikely to end soon. Market gauges for longer-term measures of lira volatility suggest traders expect a rocky road ahead. One-year implied volatility indicators compared to one-month maturities are showing their widest gap since 2018.

Graphic - Lira volcurve: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akvezmwbnpr/liravolcurve.JPG

# FOREX

2021-11-25 17:05:00     Come from : Reuters

Dollar Consolidates After Strong Gains; Tapering Could Be Speeded Up

Dollar Consolidates After Strong Gains; Tapering Could Be Speeded Up

By Peter Nurse

Investing.com - The dollar edged lower Thursday, consolidating after hitting 16-month highs after the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting pointed to the potential of a faster tapering pace.

At 2:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower at 96.733, just below Wednesday's high of 96.938, the strongest level since July 2020.

USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 115.35, not far removed from the overnight high of 115.53, a level not seen since January 2017. GBP/USD edged 0.2% higher to 1.33485, EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.1218 after falling below 1.12 on Wednesday  and AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7204.

The minutes from the Fed’s meeting held in early November, when the central bank agreed to start tapering, were released on Wednesday. These showed that a number of policymakers were open to the idea of speeding up the withdrawal of the bank’s bond-buying program if inflation remained at elevated levels. This would likely lead to the quicker introduction of higher interest rates. 

At the same time, data showed that personal income and personal spending both rose by more than forecast, while the PCE Price Index, widely seen as the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, rose at its fastest rate since April in October, and rose to multi-decade highs on an annual basis. 

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly added to the reasons to be bullish about the dollar, saying on Wednesday that she could see a case being made to speed up asset tapering.

“We find increasing evidence of a new leg of inflationary pressures in the U.S., increasing our conviction of a hawkish shift from the Fed during 2022,” said analysts at Nordea, in a note.

There’s little in the way of news expected from the U.S. to influence the foreign exchange markets Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday, but the minutes from the European Central Bank's meeting at the end of October are due for release.

“Despite the fourth [Covid] wave in Europe, the ECB seems to be sticking to the view that the PEPP [pandemic emergency purchase program] scheme will end in March,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Elsewhere, USD/TRY fell 0.3% to 12.0497, with the Turkish lira rebounding to an extent after falling to record lows earlier in the week on the back of President Tayyip Erdogan defending the central bank’s recent rate cuts. The pair climbed to a high of 13.45 on Tuesday. 

Additionally, USD/SEK fell 0.1% to 9.1039 ahead of a meeting by the Riksbank, with investors looking to see whether Sweden’s central bank still plans to keep its policy rate at zero into 2024. That comes after Sweden's Prime Minister was forced to resign after her coalition partner refused to approve her budget bill.

USD/HUF fell 0.1% to 328.67, with the National Bank of Hungary widely expected to hike its one-week deposit rate another 10 basis points to 2.60%.

# FOREX

2021-11-25 16:04:00     Come from : Investing.com